Can this change by November? What do you think the chances are?Obama has a substantial lead on the Electoral College map. Can John McCain catch up with him?For the reasons mentioned by Steve P, I think Obama is in big trouble in the Electoral College - However, I think he has a good chance of winning the popular vote, because people who have never voted before, will come out to vote for him - Unfortunately, for Obama, most of these votes will be in clearly Red or clearly Blue states, so they won't make any difference.
As in the last two elections, as a practical matter, whoever wins two out of the three swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, will probably become president.
The map at http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dash鈥?/a>
which shows a tie at 250 each is interesting - because it is pretty easy to guess which way most of the states that were not polled will go. McCain should win Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, and West Virginia. New Hampshire with 4 Electoral Votes is shown as a blue state, but I have heard that things are close there - If McCain can win New Hampshire as well as the votes of the states mentioned above and the states that are either shown as red on the map or shown as leaning his way, we would have a 269 Electoral Vote tie. However, I am not convinced that Colorado is clearly in the blue column as the map shows.Obama has a substantial lead on the Electoral College map. Can John McCain catch up with him?
The only poll that matters happens in November. You can't put any faith in today's polling system. It is based on land-line polling - something more and more people are getting away from as they move cellular.Obama has a substantial lead on the Electoral College map. Can John McCain catch up with him?No. Take note of where McCain is getting all this additional support. It's in states where he already had the electoral lead. He's not winning any new states!
It can very much change by November. We are already starting to see the effects. I saw on the news last night that McCain has the lead in Ohio which is a must need win. The tides are a turning.Obama has a substantial lead on the Electoral College map. Can John McCain catch up with him?It all hinges on the 'Battleground' states and swing states. Polls don't mean much, except when viewing some key states.
CO, VA, OH, MI, WI, NM and maybe PA are going to be the focus for both candidates, IMHO.
Dems will carry NY and CA, as well as IL, with the whole NE, except maybe NH - they like McCain.
CO going to McCain hurts the Dems plans, and the trends in the above mentioned states are also going against the Dems.
It's gonna be a nail-biter! Obama has a substantial lead on the Electoral College map. Can John McCain catch up with him?
Yes, unfortunately for Sen. Obama. The devil is in the details. Find a map somewhere and print out a list of the most recent statewide polls, in particular, those of the battleground states. We have just seen the nationwide polls yesterday. Almost always these nationwide polls are reflected in the statewide polls after approximately a week. So, look at those figures in about five days. This year I have been noticing that even certain States that should not normally be in question (usually loyally democratic states) are winnable for the Republicans. For example, Michigan, even Pennsylvania. Florida will almost certainly go Republican for reasons too many to list. Ohio is now becoming increasingly likely to go Republican. There are others that are in question. So, even with the present map if you look at the percentage differences of many of the battleground states now being counted for Sen. Obama you will see difference that are statistically considered to be insignificant (i.e., within about 1-3 %). Lately, the sexist attacks against the Palin by the ultraleft has caused a huge backlash among swing voters in many of the key states that Obama is counting on winning. For me, in spite of the apparent rosy map of today, Obama is in serious trouble, and he is losing steam. Nonetheless, the election is still two months off and previsions are tough to dice out, however, the race is now up in the air, and all bets are off.
Dumb question! McCain and Obama are dead even in electoral votes.
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dash鈥?/a>
Obama has a substantial lead on the Electoral College map. Can John McCain catch up with him?
It better. I've been praying for the right man to get into the office so the chances are pretty good.
I know many Obaminites that are just starting to figure out what this blow bag is blubbering about. Whatever they want to hear, right.
Did you see him change his mind 3 or 4 times in an O'Reilly interview. He was actually negotiating with Bill what % to change the investments taxes too. He's negotiating with O'Reilly. If we all get to negotiate what we want to pay, I want to pay nothing! NOBOMA HUSEIN
obama will win. it's already basically over.
obama wins: MI (sorry repub you lose MI),WA, OR, CA, NM,MN,IA,WI,IL,OH,PA,NY,DE,MA,NH,MD,NJ,V鈥?
==289
and it's all over. goodbye losers. hahahaha
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